Thanet Politics: Thanet Labour
Written by Matt B · first published 09/01/2010
This is the second of a series of posts looking at the state of Thanet's politics in the run up to the elections. This post will look at Thanet Labour.
This Thanet Labour article was inspired by Thanet and the general election and how the two main parties are using the internet by Michael Child.
Thanet Labour face a mixed bag this election. On the one hand the Dane Valley by-election showed mass desertion of voters from Conservative to Liberal Democrat handing an easy win to the Labour party who only needed not to spoil things. On the other hand nationally Labour are on the rocks.
Labour are carrying the can for the economic state we are currently in. This gives them a huge disadvantage to fight back from. Additionally in Thanet the Conservatives have a fairly safe seat occupied by MP Roger Gale. So can Thanet Labour come out trumps in the 2010 elections?
When it comes to parliamentary election I can see Thanet Labour acing at most one of the two seats but even that is pushing it somewhat. They will need a strong local representative that has support independent of their party affiliation. No one springs to mind.
For council based elections though, Thanet Labour are going to get an easy ride of things. Their arch rivals - the Thanet Conservative Party - seem to be deeply wounded from a spate of very public failures magnified by the attention of bloggers. All Thanet Labour have to do to walk a good victory and gain control of Thanet District Council (TDC) is not cock up between now and then.
However victory in TDC is by no means assured. There is a new challenger back on the block in the shape of the Liberal Democrats and if the Dane valley by-election is anything to go by Labour need to up their game to be sure not to come second to a third option.
Labour are not entirely free of embarrassment though the landslide granting of planning permission to the China Gateway despite public outcry was as much a Thanet Labour action as it was Conservative. Thanet Labour will, as a party, need to brush this under the carpet or failing that convince voters that they have changed and are now ready to listen to local concerns.
Two strong blogging representatives for Thanet Labour are David Green (Eastcliff Ward) and Mark Nottingham (Northwood Ward). Whatever your feelings towards their blogging styles at least they are out there and joining in. This is going to go a long way towards boosting votes in their favour (as long as Mark does not over do it taking party political shots at Cllr Moores).
No Labour have a strong Twitter, MySpace or Facebook presence which is an opportunity they join all other parties in missing completely. Such online engagement could be their only hope of taking the parliamentary seat from Mr Gale but even so they have left it very late.
Okay now for some predictions.
I expect Labour to do well in Dane Valley getting at least two and maybe all three seats in the ward. Likewise I expect that with Clive Hart and Iris Johnston strongly representing their party that Cliftonville West and Margate Central are likely to be labour in the new Thanet Council post 2010 elections.
As for producing any MPs I think Thanet Labour are going to have to work hard to do this. They might manage one... perhaps.
I would not be especially surprised to see someone like Iris Johnston try and take on Mr Gale but I still feel this is a long shot.
I think locally Margate is a done deal but the big interest will be in Ramsgate. Will Thanet Labour make much headway there? It is hard to tell at this stage. Mike J Harrison (Newington Ward) probably does not need to worry much and I expect we shall see him still happily defending his office come 2014.
Places like Westgate-on-Sea Ward are going to prove to be a much harder nut for Thanet Labour to crack. Not only does Westgate sport a massive Conservative following but the lead conservative blogger too. That is not to say they will not get it but they should not hold their breath.
TDC is likely to be a Thanet Labour led council after the next local elections but not by that big a margin. This will be more because they are likely to be given it by Thanet Conservatives than through actually winning anything.
The result will be a rather lack luster council that with a change of flavour will not make any radical or necessary changes. If they can simply make less massive mistakes though this will be an improvement.
How will I vote in 2010? Will I vote Thanet Labour locally or nationally? I'm not sure - I remain to be convinced. Certainly their foolishly seeing the win margin in Dane Valley as a strong victory does not inspire much confidence as all they did was fail to loose ground rather than pick up anything new.
What about you? What are your predictions for Labour in 2010?
This Thanet Labour article was inspired by Thanet and the general election and how the two main parties are using the internet by Michael Child.
Thanet Labour face a mixed bag this election. On the one hand the Dane Valley by-election showed mass desertion of voters from Conservative to Liberal Democrat handing an easy win to the Labour party who only needed not to spoil things. On the other hand nationally Labour are on the rocks.
Labour are carrying the can for the economic state we are currently in. This gives them a huge disadvantage to fight back from. Additionally in Thanet the Conservatives have a fairly safe seat occupied by MP Roger Gale. So can Thanet Labour come out trumps in the 2010 elections?
When it comes to parliamentary election I can see Thanet Labour acing at most one of the two seats but even that is pushing it somewhat. They will need a strong local representative that has support independent of their party affiliation. No one springs to mind.
For council based elections though, Thanet Labour are going to get an easy ride of things. Their arch rivals - the Thanet Conservative Party - seem to be deeply wounded from a spate of very public failures magnified by the attention of bloggers. All Thanet Labour have to do to walk a good victory and gain control of Thanet District Council (TDC) is not cock up between now and then.
However victory in TDC is by no means assured. There is a new challenger back on the block in the shape of the Liberal Democrats and if the Dane valley by-election is anything to go by Labour need to up their game to be sure not to come second to a third option.
Labour are not entirely free of embarrassment though the landslide granting of planning permission to the China Gateway despite public outcry was as much a Thanet Labour action as it was Conservative. Thanet Labour will, as a party, need to brush this under the carpet or failing that convince voters that they have changed and are now ready to listen to local concerns.
Two strong blogging representatives for Thanet Labour are David Green (Eastcliff Ward) and Mark Nottingham (Northwood Ward). Whatever your feelings towards their blogging styles at least they are out there and joining in. This is going to go a long way towards boosting votes in their favour (as long as Mark does not over do it taking party political shots at Cllr Moores).
No Labour have a strong Twitter, MySpace or Facebook presence which is an opportunity they join all other parties in missing completely. Such online engagement could be their only hope of taking the parliamentary seat from Mr Gale but even so they have left it very late.
Okay now for some predictions.
I expect Labour to do well in Dane Valley getting at least two and maybe all three seats in the ward. Likewise I expect that with Clive Hart and Iris Johnston strongly representing their party that Cliftonville West and Margate Central are likely to be labour in the new Thanet Council post 2010 elections.
As for producing any MPs I think Thanet Labour are going to have to work hard to do this. They might manage one... perhaps.
I would not be especially surprised to see someone like Iris Johnston try and take on Mr Gale but I still feel this is a long shot.
I think locally Margate is a done deal but the big interest will be in Ramsgate. Will Thanet Labour make much headway there? It is hard to tell at this stage. Mike J Harrison (Newington Ward) probably does not need to worry much and I expect we shall see him still happily defending his office come 2014.
Places like Westgate-on-Sea Ward are going to prove to be a much harder nut for Thanet Labour to crack. Not only does Westgate sport a massive Conservative following but the lead conservative blogger too. That is not to say they will not get it but they should not hold their breath.
TDC is likely to be a Thanet Labour led council after the next local elections but not by that big a margin. This will be more because they are likely to be given it by Thanet Conservatives than through actually winning anything.
The result will be a rather lack luster council that with a change of flavour will not make any radical or necessary changes. If they can simply make less massive mistakes though this will be an improvement.
How will I vote in 2010? Will I vote Thanet Labour locally or nationally? I'm not sure - I remain to be convinced. Certainly their foolishly seeing the win margin in Dane Valley as a strong victory does not inspire much confidence as all they did was fail to loose ground rather than pick up anything new.
What about you? What are your predictions for Labour in 2010?
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