A few more thoughts on the Dane Valley By-Election
Written by Matt B · first published 02/11/2009
Following up on Tony's post here are a few more thoughts on the Dane valley By-Election.
Both main parties are going to be hard pressed to win much of the vote and should be working flat out to see off any chance of some fringe nutters (like the BNP) from grabbing a seat. Sadly this does not seem to be the case. According to my Labour party source the Labour councillors that had the opportunity to do exactly nothing for Dane valley prior to the last ellections were all doing one last stint before retirement in a "traditional Labour ward".
In other words Dane Valley was seen as an area where Labour would always get in and so needed to do nothing. While it is true that Dane Valley is a hot spot for Labour voters it is a race of two parts.
Prior to some rather pointless looking boundry changes what we call Dane valley was made up of Millmead estate and Dane Park. Strong Labour and Conservative respectively. The resultant ward is one of 13 places in the whole of the UK where the number of children from families that claim out of work benefits is twice the national average (so is Newigton by the way). To be sure of a win a councillor must not only court the attention of the home owners that largely consider themselves to be "Dane Park" but also the disenfranchised Millmead crew who are likely to tell you voting is pointless because they are all the same anyway.
With a low publicity election a councillor might slip in on Dane Park votes but should be careful because anyone able to muster even a fraction of the Millmead vote will soon find they have a strong majority. Right now, however the Millmead voter is facing unemployment and the political force behind that appears to be the Labour party. Thanet Labour are going to have to work like stink to get a seat and then keep working like the end of the world right up and through the next election. Right now however they are being sufficiently "safe" to safely get no seats at all.
Unless the lib-dems can pull something out of the bag we could be stuck with another four years of Sandy Ezekiel selling carpets to China instead of real care for the district.
Both main parties are going to be hard pressed to win much of the vote and should be working flat out to see off any chance of some fringe nutters (like the BNP) from grabbing a seat. Sadly this does not seem to be the case. According to my Labour party source the Labour councillors that had the opportunity to do exactly nothing for Dane valley prior to the last ellections were all doing one last stint before retirement in a "traditional Labour ward".
In other words Dane Valley was seen as an area where Labour would always get in and so needed to do nothing. While it is true that Dane Valley is a hot spot for Labour voters it is a race of two parts.
Prior to some rather pointless looking boundry changes what we call Dane valley was made up of Millmead estate and Dane Park. Strong Labour and Conservative respectively. The resultant ward is one of 13 places in the whole of the UK where the number of children from families that claim out of work benefits is twice the national average (so is Newigton by the way). To be sure of a win a councillor must not only court the attention of the home owners that largely consider themselves to be "Dane Park" but also the disenfranchised Millmead crew who are likely to tell you voting is pointless because they are all the same anyway.
With a low publicity election a councillor might slip in on Dane Park votes but should be careful because anyone able to muster even a fraction of the Millmead vote will soon find they have a strong majority. Right now, however the Millmead voter is facing unemployment and the political force behind that appears to be the Labour party. Thanet Labour are going to have to work like stink to get a seat and then keep working like the end of the world right up and through the next election. Right now however they are being sufficiently "safe" to safely get no seats at all.
Unless the lib-dems can pull something out of the bag we could be stuck with another four years of Sandy Ezekiel selling carpets to China instead of real care for the district.
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One fan short of a hundred. :)
Tony Ovenden wrote:
You do seem to be shooting from the hip on this subject. Firstly, Dane Valley Millmead in the past was the Northdown South polling district and from 1974 to 1995 the seat was held by independants with the exception of the SDP holding a seat at the time of its popularity. The Labour Party held all the seats from 1995 to 2003. Then in 2003 shared the spoils with a elected Conservative member. So it is hardly a seat where "Labour would always get in". The same also applies to the Dane Park area known as the Dane Park South polling district, these seats have all been held at one point by Labour,Conservative,SDP, Independants and Rebel Conservatives which hardly makes this area a "safe" seat for anyone. Obviously, national politics have had big influence on voting patterns. However, in previous elections some candidates have bucked the trend regardless of who did this and who did that in the past and won the seat by sheer hard work. So based on past experiences I think you are a little unwise to write off Sandra Hart's chances.